The 2008/09 global economic crisis exposed and exacerbated a wide number of debt-related pathologies associated with the growth model of advanced economies. Nine years after the crisis, the majority of advanced economies remain into uncharted economic waters defined by high levels of leverage and debt. Now, debt concerns return to emerging economies too, while the global economy faces a series of new debt-related challenges (e.g. falling commodity prices, the economic slowdown in China and Emerging Markets, monetary normalisation in the US, quantitative easing in Europe and Japan, geopolitical uncertainties). Most importantly, these trends take place in a global economic environment defined by a considerable shift of global economic weight from advanced to emerging and developing economies, especially in terms of contribution to global GDP. Accounting for the ways in which this shift impacts on global growth patterns and traditional economic dependencies and vulnerabilities remain a major challenge.
The aim of the Global Debt Dynamics Initiative (GDDI) is to piece together the different debt-dynamics currently underway in the global economy, and examine their potential implications for the involved countries and the global economic system. Key questions include, but are not limited to: Has the vulnerability/resilience nexus that defined the interaction between emerging and advanced economies in the post-WWII era changed? If yes, how, and how does it matter for the involved economies, and the post-1990s economic globalisation order. How has the economic crisis affected global debt dynamics, and what has been the impact of these changes on the relationship between advanced economies and emerging powers? What is the impact of the rise and fall of quantitative easing on emerging and advanced economies? How monetary tightening in the US will affect the other advanced economies and the emerging powers? How do the increasing use of renminbi and existing currency swap arrangements impact on traditional debt vulnerabilities in emerging economies? Is de-dollarisation possible and desirable for emerging economies? How do growth dynamics in the advanced economies relate to growth dynamics in emerging powers, and how does this relationship affect their debt policies and strategies? How can we sharpen our methodologies and methods in capturing and analysing global debt dynamics and their multiple implications?
If you are interested in participating in the GDDI, please contact Dr Andreas Antoniades at A.A.Antoniades@sussex.ac.uk.